As Hurricane Milton forms in the Gulf of Mexico, damage estimates are rolling in from tropical cyclone Helene — and the news is grim for homeowners.
Helene caused $30.5 billion to $47.5 billion in property damage across 16 states after striking the Florida Panhandle and carving a path of destruction across the Southeast late last month, according to new estimates from real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.
However, only $10.5 billion to $17.5 billion worth of that wind and flood damage will be covered by insurance, CoreLogic estimates.
The insured losses include damage covered by private policies as well as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the federal program that accounts for 95% of the flood insurance policies in the U.S.
In addition to the storm surge flooding that Helene brought to a large swath of Florida’s Gulf Coast, the storm unleashed historic rains across multiple states.
In Asheville, NC, and surrounding communities, French Broad River hit flood heights of more than 24 feet, shattering the previous record set more than 100 years ago, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
“We’re seeing entire towns essentially flooded up to the first story,” says Jon Schneyer, director of catastrophe response for CoreLogic. “So we’re talking total losses on properties in entire towns.”
Majority of property damage from Helene is likely uninsured
Flood damage is not typically covered by homeowners insurance, and it’s not required by mortgage lenders unless a home is located in a designated flood hazard zone. As a result, much of the inland flooding from Helene’s torrential rains will likely not be covered, says Schneyer.
In Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, less than 1% of homes are covered for flood damage under NFIP, according to federal data. Across 100 counties in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia that were hardest hit by Helene, just 2% of homes are protected by flood insurance, an NBC News analysis found.
CoreLogic projects that NFIP will pay out $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion in flood damage claims related to Helene. But most of those covered losses will be concentrated in coastal areas impacted by storm surges, where mortgage lenders typically require flood protection, says Schneyer.
Private insurers will pay out an additional $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion for covered losses from wind damage, with the majority of those losses occurring in Florida and Georgia, CoreLogic estimates.
Many homeowners might underestimate their risk of flood damage if they are not in a Special Flood Hazard Area, also known as the 100-year flood zone, where mortgage lenders require flood insurance, Schneyer says.
“Given things like a changing climate, rain will be more intense and hurricanes will be wetter,” he says. “The flood risk at your home might be higher than you perceived. So being informed of risk is a key way to start preventing future damage, whether it’s mitigation or insurance.”
Realtor.com includes flood risk ratings on listings, and our dynamic map layers include a flood risk display that shows the 1% risk floodwater levels for an area over one year, 15 years, and 30 years.
New hurricane renews flood risk in Florida
Meanwhile, in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Milton was upgraded to a Category 4 storm on Monday. Milton is expected to slam Florida’s Gulf Coast by midweek, bringing renewed flood risks to the state.
Milton had maximum sustained winds of 155 mph on Monday morning and was expected to reach Category 5 strength later in the day, the National Weather Service said in an advisory.
The storm is projected to make landfall near Tampa Bay on Wednesday, bringing storm surges of up to 12 feet. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across the Florida peninsula.
“This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding,” the NWS said in a flash bulletin.