The polls are tight! A polling error like in 2016 could doom Kamala Harris! That’s the message of pretty much the message from the media and all of the polling experts. But there’s a dirty little secret that they aren’t telling you and hopefully after I share it with you, you’ll be able to breathe a little easier.
You should still be doing the work. You need to continue to donate your time, talent and/or treasure. But maybe you’ll be able to just breathe a little easier.
I want to first share with you the final 2016 PA forecast from 538.
Why that looks a little more D friendly than the current PA forecast from 538!
I’m here to tell you it’s not. Clinton’s vote share from the last 10 PA polls was 46.7. Her final PA vote share was 47.6. That’s pretty close. The problem for Clinton was that trump basically took almost all of the undecideds.
Well couldn’t he do that again this year?
I guess, but even if he took EVERY undecided, I’m still not sure he’d be able to catch Harris. Why? Because if you take the last nine polls (I’m excluding the shit poll from Redfield Wilson, you should too, but that’s an entirely different diary), Kamala Harris is at 49.11%.
Understand what’s going on friends. She’s winning. She’s going to win big. The media wants to keep this a horserace and pretend that this is 2016. It is not. Remember, since Dobbs Democrats across the board have OVERPERFORMED and the GOP and trump (yes, look at his primary performances) have UNDERPERFORMED.
You may now return to your previous freak out, but I hope you don’t.