Recent research suggests that without curbing greenhouse gas emissions, deaths caused by extreme temperatures in the U.S. could triple by mid-century. While cold weather currently accounts for more casualties, the increasing temperatures due to climate change are projected to shift the trend towards extreme heat as the primary cause of temperature-related deaths.
Impact on Different Demographics
A new study published in JAMA Network Open indicates that extreme temperature deaths are expected to rise significantly across the nation, affecting all groups. However, ethnic minorities and the elderly are projected to be disproportionately affected. According to lead author Sameed Khatana, the number of deaths associated with extreme heat is estimated to more than double in the lower emissions scenario, and potentially triple in the higher emissions scenario.
Forecasts Reinforce the Threat
The study utilized statistical models to predict excess deaths during extreme temperature days between 2008 to 2019. On average, 8,249 deaths annually were linked to extreme temperatures, with the majority occurring on extremely cold days. The forecasts for 2036-2065 paint a dire picture, with heat-related fatalities surpassing cold-related deaths substantially, especially under the higher emissions scenario.
Growing Mortality Rates
Heat poses a serious danger, particularly concerning cardiovascular health, leading to higher rates of cardiovascular deaths. The Midwest region is expected to bear the brunt of the impact, with death toll estimates climbing up to 337 percent in some areas.
Ethnic Disparities and Urban Impact
Hispanic and Black populations, alongside older adults and urban residents, are set to face a higher risk of temperature-related deaths. Factors such as population growth, urban concentration, and access to air conditioning play crucial roles in these projections, with Black and Hispanic adults disproportionately affected despite efforts to enhance adaptive measures.
Mitigating the Risks
As the situation grows more concerning, researchers advocate for further exploration of effective strategies to combat temperature-related deaths. Preliminary studies suggest that planting trees in urban areas may help mitigate the impact, emphasizing the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in combating this critical issue.
In conclusion, the findings underscore the urgency of addressing climate change and its detrimental effects on public health. To combat the escalating threat of extreme heat-related deaths, concerted efforts towards emission reduction and sustainable mitigation strategies are imperative to safeguard vulnerable populations and mitigate the escalating health risks.