At 5-3, the TCU Horned Frogs are just one win away from again reaching the postseason. In four of the last five seasons, TCU did not play in a bowl game, three times by failing to reach the required six wins. The exception? You probably remember – the 2022 Frogs played for a National Championship. This week, TCU is a +3 underdog at the arch-rival Baylor Bears.
Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 43.9%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 4-4 against the spread, failing to cover a -4.5 spread against Texas Tech last week. The over is 5-3, with 69 points covering the 66.5-point over/under.
A useful tool when betting, especially a league with as many teams as college football, is identifying teams that changed course from preseason expectation or early-season performance. After a 2-4 start–with zero lined wins over FBS teams currently with a win against another FBS foe–the seat was heating up for head coach Dave Aranda. But coming out of the bye, the Bears won two straight, scoring 59 on Texas Tech and 35 on Oklahoma State. Clearly, some bye week adjustments to the offense did Baylor good.
The other factor to consider is the stretch of games where Baylor went 1-4: at Utah (with starting QB Cam Rising, a top-12 foe at the time), at Colorado (now 6-2 and it came on a Hail Mary), undefeated BYU, and undefeated Iowa State. Looking back, that's a fairly excusable slide that sends the majority of FBS teams 1-4.
So, have the oddsmakers fully adjusted to Baylor, now that the Bears ripped off two straight? Given they spot Baylor three points against TCU, I do believe so – and then some. Roughly speaking, home field advantage accounts for 2.5 points. So, remove that, and the sportsbook power ratings suggest Baylor is a better football team than TCU by a half-point, removing all extraneous factors.
That seems a bit extreme for a team that upended Texas Tech (losers of two straight now) and Oklahoma State (0-5 in Big 12 play).
TCU has an opportunity to secure a bowl berth–something the coaching staff, roster, and fanbase knows doesn't come as a given in Fort Worth–and beat a rival on the road. I'm choosing not to buy high on Baylor in this one. With a +3.5 available as of Friday afternoon, I'm taking the underdog here.
The average point total for Baylor games against Big 12 opponents this year? 76.8. For TCU? 54.4. Remove a common opponent (Utah) from both and those adjust to 87.3 and 63. Defense is spotty for both of these teams. Baylor has a tendency to give up explosive plays (it ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in long passes and bottom 30 in total explosive plays allowed). TCU allows long, sustained drives and can't get off the field on third down.
This is an under-think pick. I expect plenty of points here from two capable offenses and two porous defenses.